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    Poll: Regional Elections

    Which elections will have the biggest impact on the region in 2009?

    • The Lebanese parliamentary elections on June 7th (42%)
    • The Iranian presidential elections on June 12th (37%)
    • The Israeli parliamentary elections on February 10th (16%)
    • The Palestinian general elections (if held) (5%)

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    Please elaborate on your choice in the discussion section>.

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    11 responses to “Poll: Regional Elections”

    1. Nadim K. says:

      In israel, I don’t see any real difference between the different parties.
      In Iran, the president doesn’t really have that much power.
      I don’t see what difference Palestinian elections can have since Israel will have the final say on who to recognise anyway.
      So for me it has to be the Lebanese parliamentary elections, since there is a real battle between two different visions for the country and its place in the region.

    2. Rayan B says:

      Nadim,

      Lets say M14 wins the elections. They would be crippled by Hezb’s weapons (a la May 7)

      However a change in the regime in Iran would trigger a change in Hezb’s behaviour, which, obviously, is one of the biggest factors in Lebanese politics.

      So, my vote goes for choice 1.

    3. maya says:

      i think Iram will have the biggest impact on the region since it is the only power who support Hiziballah & Hamass… so the result of Iran election may have effect on the region!!!

    4. Sa2ed says:

      I have to agree with Nadim.
      Elections in Iran will not lead to regime change. Only the face through which that regime will exert its power will change, but the program, the plan, , the fundamentalist ideology, and the nuclear and expansionist aspirations will remain unchanged. The same applies to Israel’s regime and their disregard to Human Rights and UN Resolutions, their expansionist aspirations, and their very bloody methods.

      For a Lebanese, only the Lebanese elections matter. The same can be said for a Palestinian, considering the rift that has been created between the two sides there. Another electoral victory for Hamas will only amplify their power trip, and by “they” I mean Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, and Qatar (by association).

      A victory for Hezbollah in Lebanon would still have the biggest impact on the region for sure. A victory for March 14 will have almost no impact.

    5. Nassim AG says:

      Its definetly the Lebanese..well you see guys in Iran no matter who comes these big countries such as Iran and United states have previously fixed policies that will let them achieve their benefits in the region. We have to know that by now. So it doesn’t really matter..the coming president might be more negotiable and diplomatic just as Obama but definelty they will still hang on to what they want in the region.
      Concerning Palestine it also doesn’t really matter unless Isreal never wants a country anymore..the only difference can be is if Hamas lost, the situation will be more open for a truce.
      On the other hand,i f M14 lost this elections this means we are back to the Dictatorship by Hizbollah and their threats with weapons just as we saw in May 7!
      We will then be in Iranians hands for sure!

    6. ramel says:

      I believe that a moderate Israeli government combined with a moderate American one could provide the region with one of the best chances it has had so far for lasting peace. Which is why I voted for choice 3

    7. Edouard says:

      So 47% of the voters think that the Lebanese elections are the one that will have the biggest impact on the region. How Lebanese is that ? Thinking that Lebanon IS the center of it all.
      What is this pol all about. Some kind of Middle-East version of Eurovision ?
      Lebanon, 10 points …
      It does not sound serious to me.
      Lebanese elections, whatever the results are, will have a rather insignificant impact on the region.
      Because shias will vote massively for Hezbollah. And sunnis for al-Moustaqbal. This is written already. So what( the only stake is the christian vote, and it is a minority one.
      Whatever the results are, the Lebanse gvt will eventually be paralysed by its necessary balance between the two branches of islam, exactly the same way it was, before the war, between sunnis and christians.
      Furthermore, Lebanon is a part of the chess game in the region, but it is certainly not the center ; Hezbollah’s agenda being scheduled in Tehran more then in Beyrouth.
      For all those reasons, I would say that Lebanese elections are the least important for the region, as certainly as they are the more important … for Lebanese.

      Iran’s elections will influate in a deeper way the whole region, because Iran is the increasing power and because it has allies in both Lebanon and Palestine, that is to say mainly Gaza for now. If Iran was a real democracy, the elections would be from far the most important. But because most of the power is in the hands of Khamenei, rather then in the President, the change that will come from the result of these elections will not be as important as it could had been.

      Netanyahou, Livni and Barak have a different way to speak about the conflict with Palestinians and indeed, what they offer to deal with gives us 3, or at least 2 very different main lines.
      But what will Israel Prime minister do once he had been elected (well, chosen, more precisely) is another story. Obama’s policy won’t let Israel’s leader, who ever he is, that many different options. In this regard, but I might be wrong here, I don’t think that Netanhayou being elected will doom the chances of peace. I think a “tough leader” will be more easely able to implement a pease agreement than any other one. We shall not forget that it was Begin who was the first israeli Prime minister to sign peace with Sadate’s Egypt.

      If they are held, it is the Palestinian elections that will have the biggest impact on the region, because the peace process depends on them more than on anything else.
      Israel can be ruled by Likloud, by Kadima, by the Labor ; it will still be Israel, speaking one voice. But it takes two to make peace and until there is no one and only legitimate Palestinian leader, they will be no peace to be expected on the horizon.

    8. gassan says:

      The last one, the Iranian election June 12 is the most important In my opinion if moderate wins that election, then there is a bigger chance for Obama deal thus increasing moderate Shiite influence in the region and decreasing radical Salafist Wahabist Sunni role in the region. If Ahmadinajad wins, more western pressures will occur at a time when Iran is blocking a Palestinian settelment. If Netanyahu comes to power in February he will abide by western pressure to accomodate moderate Iran, but it will be difficult to restrain Israel and its fear of Nuclear, Hizballa, and Hamas if Ahmadinajad returns. The Lebanese elections; if Hizballa and his allies win one week before the Iranian election then Hizballa will abide by the moderate Iranian leadersdhip and they will resign for bigger political role for shiites in the area.

    9. ramez says:

      heh..akid the leb la2annou isra2il w iran min mabyeji l irhab houweh bi zetoo,bass falastineyeh mhemeh chway bass ana bi ra2yeh l leb…

    10. AGM says:

      Apparently, our poll inspired journalist Emile Khoury (L’Orient-Le Jour) who wrote an article about the influence of the 4 upcoming elections. You can read the article on: http://www.tajaddod-youth.com/in-the-media-page/688/

    11. Toni says:

      Edouard, i really appreciated your analysis but do not agree with everything. If you beleive the palestinians elections are the most important than you should agree too that in lebanon it’s really important.
      Suppose for one minute that hezbollah wins in June, lebanon will be in the same position as Palestine where a government will probably be not recognized by the US and Europe (bcoz hezbollah is comparable to Hamas) and the division in Lebanon would lead to devastating consequences in the region. (like the gaza war).
      I agree that Israel has an important election this year but it will change slightly its foreign policy but not in a dramatic way. In Iran, khamenei controls everything, so as long as the regime is in place nothing will change.
      My opinion is that the 2 election (lebanon and palestine) are the most important (so i can’t really vote for one) because it will reveal the balance of power between moderation and extremism and will reveal the advancement of the iranian and syrian influence over the pro-western parties.

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